Minority Report

Gaylord, MI — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Otsego County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 40°   Low 31°   Rain 80%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 1°, rain spread 78 points, 4 sources)

Minority report — Thursday, November 12: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 22% against a group average of 80%.
Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—31°22%
US model (GFS)40°32°81%
European model (ECMWF)41°33°100%
German model (ICON)40°31°98%
Canadian model (GEM)41°31°100%
The average40°31°80%

Friday, November 13

High 36°   Low 30°   Rain 21%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 2°, rain spread 56 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Friday, November 13: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 59% against a group average of 21%.
Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service35°30°59%
US model (GFS)35°30°19%
European model (ECMWF)37°29°3%
German model (ICON)36°29°13%
Canadian model (GEM)36°30°10%
The average36°30°21%

Saturday, November 14

High 39°   Low 32°   Rain 5%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 3°, rain spread 10 points, 5 sources)

Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service39°30°10%
US model (GFS)39°32°6%
European model (ECMWF)37°32°6%
German model (ICON)40°31°5%
Canadian model (GEM)38°32°0%
The average39°32°5%

Sunday, November 15

High 41°   Low 30°   Rain 1%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 3 points, 5 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service40°28°3%
US model (GFS)42°32°2%
European model (ECMWF)42°30°2%
German model (ICON)42°31°0%
Canadian model (GEM)39°28°0%
The average41°30°1%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.