Minority Report

Geneva, IL — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Kane County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 44°   Low 34°   Rain 16%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 1°, rain spread 35 points, 4 sources)

Minority report — Thursday, November 12: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 35% against a group average of 16%.
Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—32°11%
US model (GFS)44°34°4%
European model (ECMWF)43°35°35%
German model (ICON)44°36°0%
Canadian model (GEM)44°34°29%
The average44°34°16%

Friday, November 13

High 42°   Low 31°   Rain 7%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 3°, rain spread 13 points, 5 sources)

Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service41°30°13%
US model (GFS)41°32°6%
European model (ECMWF)42°33°0%
German model (ICON)43°32°8%
Canadian model (GEM)44°30°10%
The average42°31°7%

Saturday, November 14

High 45°   Low 29°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 1 points, 5 sources)

Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service46°28°0%
US model (GFS)44°31°1%
European model (ECMWF)44°30°0%
German model (ICON)46°31°0%
Canadian model (GEM)44°24°0%
The average45°29°0%

Sunday, November 15

High 47°   Low 28°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 0 points, 5 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service48°28°0%
US model (GFS)47°32°0%
European model (ECMWF)46°29°0%
German model (ICON)47°31°0%
Canadian model (GEM)48°21°0%
The average47°28°0%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.