Minority Report

Girard, KS — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Crawford County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 57°   Low 34°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 1°, rain spread 0 points, 4 sources)

Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—30°0%
US model (GFS)57°36°0%
European model (ECMWF)57°38°0%
German model (ICON)56°34°0%
Canadian model (GEM)57°32°0%
The average57°34°0%

Friday, November 13

High 47°   Low 28°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 0 points, 5 sources)

Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service48°26°0%
US model (GFS)46°29°0%
European model (ECMWF)47°32°0%
German model (ICON)48°28°0%
Canadian model (GEM)48°25°0%
The average47°28°0%

Saturday, November 14

High 51°   Low 26°   Rain 1%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 4 points, 5 sources)

Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service51°34°4%
US model (GFS)52°23°0%
European model (ECMWF)49°30°0%
German model (ICON)53°25°0%
Canadian model (GEM)52°20°0%
The average51°26°1%

Sunday, November 15

High 53°   Low 34°   Rain 15%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 7°, rain spread 23 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Sunday, November 15: the Canadian model (GEM) stands apart, rain 29% against a group average of 15%.
Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service51°34°13%
US model (GFS)56°38°11%
European model (ECMWF)52°34°6%
German model (ICON)55°33°14%
Canadian model (GEM)49°30°29%
The average53°34°15%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.