Minority Report

Goldsboro, NC — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Wayne County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 72°   Low 49°   Rain 17%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 3°, rain spread 37 points, 4 sources)

Minority report — Thursday, November 12: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 37% against a group average of 17%.
Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—44°0%
US model (GFS)73°50°26%
European model (ECMWF)70°50°37%
German model (ICON)73°49°5%
Canadian model (GEM)73°50°19%
The average72°49°17%

Friday, November 13

High 59°   Low 42°   Rain 20%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 3°, rain spread 37 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Friday, November 13: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 46% against a group average of 20%.
Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service61°36°16%
US model (GFS)58°45°9%
European model (ECMWF)58°44°46%
German model (ICON)60°41°20%
Canadian model (GEM)60°43°9%
The average59°42°20%

Saturday, November 14

High 54°   Low 36°   Rain 14%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 3°, rain spread 45 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 46% against a group average of 14%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service56°33°1%
US model (GFS)54°37°3%
European model (ECMWF)53°38°46%
German model (ICON)54°33°5%
Canadian model (GEM)54°37°14%
The average54°36°14%

Sunday, November 15

High 56°   Low 33°   Rain 0%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 0 points, 5 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service58°34°0%
US model (GFS)55°36°0%
European model (ECMWF)55°36°0%
German model (ICON)59°29°0%
Canadian model (GEM)54°31°0%
The average56°33°0%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.