Minority Report

Goliad, TX — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Goliad County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 77°   Low 55°   Rain 1%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 5 points, 4 sources)

Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—51°0%
US model (GFS)78°60°0%
European model (ECMWF)77°59°0%
German model (ICON)76°55°0%
Canadian model (GEM)78°51°5%
The average77°55°1%

Friday, November 13

High 77°   Low 52°   Rain 1%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 6°, rain spread 3 points, 5 sources)

Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service75°54°3%
US model (GFS)76°55°0%
European model (ECMWF)77°53°0%
German model (ICON)76°51°0%
Canadian model (GEM)81°46°0%
The average77°52°1%

Saturday, November 14

High 75°   Low 57°   Rain 52%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 10°, rain spread 50 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 79% against a group average of 52%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service72°61°45%
US model (GFS)70°57°42%
European model (ECMWF)76°58°79%
German model (ICON)74°56°65%
Canadian model (GEM)80°52°29%
The average75°57°52%

Sunday, November 15

High 75°   Low 60°   Rain 84%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 6°, rain spread 13 points, 5 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service73°56°83%
US model (GFS)78°64°75%
European model (ECMWF)73°59°87%
German model (ICON)73°58°85%
Canadian model (GEM)79°63°88%
The average75°60°84%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.