Minority Report

Grafton, WV — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Taylor County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 51°   Low 40°   Rain 82%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 6°, rain spread 53 points, 4 sources)

Minority report — Thursday, November 12: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 47% against a group average of 82%.
Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—31°47%
US model (GFS)49°43°63%
European model (ECMWF)55°44°100%
German model (ICON)50°39°100%
Canadian model (GEM)50°43°100%
The average51°40°82%

Friday, November 13

High 44°   Low 32°   Rain 42%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 2°, rain spread 47 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Friday, November 13: the US model (GFS) stands apart, rain 14% against a group average of 42%.
Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service44°29°28%
US model (GFS)43°32°14%
European model (ECMWF)44°34°61%
German model (ICON)43°34°60%
Canadian model (GEM)44°30°46%
The average44°32°42%

Saturday, November 14

High 43°   Low 31°   Rain 29%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 5°, rain spread 33 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the Canadian model (GEM) stands apart, rain 48% against a group average of 29%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service43°30°29%
US model (GFS)42°33°15%
European model (ECMWF)45°31°22%
German model (ICON)44°32°30%
Canadian model (GEM)40°30°48%
The average43°31°29%

Sunday, November 15

High 44°   Low 35°   Rain 23%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 3°, rain spread 27 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Sunday, November 15: the German model (ICON) stands apart, rain 43% against a group average of 23%.
Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service45°30°20%
US model (GFS)44°36°19%
European model (ECMWF)44°38°16%
German model (ICON)45°36°43%
Canadian model (GEM)42°35°19%
The average44°35°23%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.