Minority Report

Grayling, MI — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Crawford County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 41°   Low 32°   Rain 76%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 2°, rain spread 82 points, 4 sources)

Minority report — Thursday, November 12: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 18% against a group average of 76%.
Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—31°18%
US model (GFS)43°32°76%
European model (ECMWF)42°34°100%
German model (ICON)41°31°90%
Canadian model (GEM)40°31°95%
The average41°32°76%

Friday, November 13

High 37°   Low 30°   Rain 14%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 1°, rain spread 36 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Friday, November 13: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 36% against a group average of 14%.
Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service38°29°36%
US model (GFS)37°31°10%
European model (ECMWF)38°29°0%
German model (ICON)37°29°0%
Canadian model (GEM)38°31°25%
The average37°30°14%

Saturday, November 14

High 41°   Low 31°   Rain 3%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 3°, rain spread 9 points, 5 sources)

Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service41°29°9%
US model (GFS)41°33°5%
European model (ECMWF)39°32°0%
German model (ICON)42°32°0%
Canadian model (GEM)40°30°0%
The average41°31°3%

Sunday, November 15

High 43°   Low 30°   Rain 2%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 3°, rain spread 9 points, 5 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service43°26°9%
US model (GFS)44°34°0%
European model (ECMWF)43°30°0%
German model (ICON)43°32°0%
Canadian model (GEM)41°28°0%
The average43°30°2%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.