Minority Report

Grayson, KY — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Carter County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 55°   Low 42°   Rain 87%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 4°, rain spread 46 points, 4 sources)

Minority report — Thursday, November 12: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 54% against a group average of 87%.
Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—34°54%
US model (GFS)54°42°85%
European model (ECMWF)55°45°100%
German model (ICON)54°44°98%
Canadian model (GEM)57°44°100%
The average55°42°87%

Friday, November 13

High 47°   Low 35°   Rain 62%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 3°, rain spread 43 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Friday, November 13: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 84% against a group average of 62%.
Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service48°28°41%
US model (GFS)47°37°50%
European model (ECMWF)48°37°84%
German model (ICON)45°36°70%
Canadian model (GEM)46°35°67%
The average47°35°62%

Saturday, November 14

High 47°   Low 33°   Rain 7%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 3°, rain spread 14 points, 5 sources)

Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service47°29°0%
US model (GFS)46°33°9%
European model (ECMWF)49°36°2%
German model (ICON)46°33°10%
Canadian model (GEM)46°35°14%
The average47°33°7%

Sunday, November 15

High 48°   Low 35°   Rain 0%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 3°, rain spread 2 points, 5 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service49°28°0%
US model (GFS)48°41°0%
European model (ECMWF)47°38°2%
German model (ICON)50°35°0%
Canadian model (GEM)48°33°0%
The average48°35°0%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.