Minority Report

Greensburg, IN — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Decatur County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 51°   Low 38°   Rain 44%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 2°, rain spread 49 points, 3 sources)

Minority report — Thursday, November 12: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 74% against a group average of 44%.
Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—36°29%
US model (GFS)50°38°25%
European model (ECMWF)52°41°74%
Canadian model (GEM)50°37°49%
The average51°38°44%

Friday, November 13

High 43°   Low 33°   Rain 34%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 4°, rain spread 44 points, 4 sources)

Minority report — Friday, November 13: the US model (GFS) stands apart, rain 8% against a group average of 34%.
Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service43°30°30%
US model (GFS)42°32°8%
European model (ECMWF)45°36°47%
Canadian model (GEM)41°33°52%
The average43°33°34%

Saturday, November 14

High 45°   Low 30°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 1 points, 4 sources)

Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service45°32°0%
US model (GFS)45°31°1%
European model (ECMWF)44°30°0%
Canadian model (GEM)46°25°0%
The average45°30°0%

Sunday, November 15

High 48°   Low 31°   Rain 0%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 2 points, 4 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service48°30°0%
US model (GFS)50°35°0%
European model (ECMWF)46°35°2%
Canadian model (GEM)48°24°0%
The average48°31°0%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.