Minority Report

Greensville County, VA — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Greensville County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 71°   Low 44°   Rain 13%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 3°, rain spread 24 points, 4 sources)

Minority report — Thursday, November 12: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 27% against a group average of 13%.
Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—41°3%
US model (GFS)70°43°10%
European model (ECMWF)70°48°27%
German model (ICON)70°46°18%
Canadian model (GEM)73°43°6%
The average71°44°13%

Friday, November 13

High 57°   Low 38°   Rain 2%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 4 points, 5 sources)

Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service58°30°3%
US model (GFS)56°39°2%
European model (ECMWF)55°42°4%
German model (ICON)56°35°3%
Canadian model (GEM)59°44°0%
The average57°38°2%

Saturday, November 14

High 53°   Low 33°   Rain 1%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 3°, rain spread 2 points, 5 sources)

Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service54°30°0%
US model (GFS)53°33°2%
European model (ECMWF)51°37°1%
German model (ICON)53°31°0%
Canadian model (GEM)52°32°0%
The average53°33°1%

Sunday, November 15

High 55°   Low 33°   Rain 0%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 0 points, 5 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service56°28°0%
US model (GFS)55°34°0%
European model (ECMWF)56°37°0%
German model (ICON)57°32°0%
Canadian model (GEM)54°33°0%
The average55°33°0%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.