Minority Report

Greenville, IL — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Bond County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 49°   Low 34°   Rain 15%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 2°, rain spread 27 points, 4 sources)

Minority report — Thursday, November 12: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 35% against a group average of 15%.
Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—31°8%
US model (GFS)49°34°9%
European model (ECMWF)48°38°35%
German model (ICON)50°34°15%
Canadian model (GEM)49°35°10%
The average49°34°15%

Friday, November 13

High 45°   Low 30°   Rain 2%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 9 points, 5 sources)

Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service45°26°9%
US model (GFS)45°30°0%
European model (ECMWF)43°34°0%
German model (ICON)46°30°0%
Canadian model (GEM)44°29°0%
The average45°30°2%

Saturday, November 14

High 48°   Low 26°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 0 points, 5 sources)

Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service49°26°0%
US model (GFS)48°23°0%
European model (ECMWF)47°30°0%
German model (ICON)49°26°0%
Canadian model (GEM)47°24°0%
The average48°26°0%

Sunday, November 15

High 51°   Low 27°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 3°, rain spread 0 points, 5 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service50°28°0%
US model (GFS)53°32°0%
European model (ECMWF)50°29°0%
German model (ICON)53°28°0%
Canadian model (GEM)50°19°0%
The average51°27°0%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.