Minority Report

Greenville, MO — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Wayne County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 60°   Low 38°   Rain 7%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 3°, rain spread 22 points, 4 sources)

Minority report — Thursday, November 12: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 22% against a group average of 7%.
Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—31°0%
US model (GFS)62°38°4%
European model (ECMWF)60°42°22%
German model (ICON)59°37°0%
Canadian model (GEM)59°43°10%
The average60°38°7%

Friday, November 13

High 48°   Low 31°   Rain 0%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 0 points, 5 sources)

Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service49°23°0%
US model (GFS)46°30°0%
European model (ECMWF)46°35°0%
German model (ICON)50°30°0%
Canadian model (GEM)48°34°0%
The average48°31°0%

Saturday, November 14

High 51°   Low 26°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 0 points, 5 sources)

Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service52°24°0%
US model (GFS)52°23°0%
European model (ECMWF)50°31°0%
German model (ICON)52°25°0%
Canadian model (GEM)50°28°0%
The average51°26°0%

Sunday, November 15

High 54°   Low 30°   Rain 1%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 4 points, 5 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service54°26°2%
US model (GFS)54°35°1%
European model (ECMWF)54°31°0%
German model (ICON)56°32°0%
Canadian model (GEM)52°26°4%
The average54°30°1%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.