Minority Report

Groveton, TX — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Trinity County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 78°   Low 53°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 0 points, 4 sources)

Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—48°0%
US model (GFS)79°53°0%
European model (ECMWF)78°55°0%
German model (ICON)77°53°0%
Canadian model (GEM)77°55°0%
The average78°53°0%

Friday, November 13

High 72°   Low 50°   Rain 0%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 0 points, 5 sources)

Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service72°45°0%
US model (GFS)73°51°0%
European model (ECMWF)72°52°0%
German model (ICON)70°49°0%
Canadian model (GEM)74°51°0%
The average72°50°0%

Saturday, November 14

High 65°   Low 47°   Rain 17%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 7°, rain spread 33 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the Canadian model (GEM) stands apart, rain 0% against a group average of 17%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service64°47°33%
US model (GFS)68°46°8%
European model (ECMWF)66°48°33%
German model (ICON)61°43°13%
Canadian model (GEM)64°51°0%
The average65°47°17%

Sunday, November 15

High 57°   Low 47°   Rain 81%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 10°, rain spread 32 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Sunday, November 15: the US model (GFS) stands apart, rain 64% against a group average of 81%.
Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service60°47°78%
US model (GFS)62°47°64%
European model (ECMWF)54°47°96%
German model (ICON)51°47°78%
Canadian model (GEM)59°47°87%
The average57°47°81%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.