Minority Report

Hailey, ID — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Blaine County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 59°   Low 36°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 3°, rain spread 1 points, 4 sources)

Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—34°1%
US model (GFS)59°34°0%
European model (ECMWF)58°35°0%
German model (ICON)59°38°0%
Canadian model (GEM)60°39°0%
The average59°36°0%

Friday, November 13

High 54°   Low 36°   Rain 97%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 5°, rain spread 14 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Friday, November 13: the US model (GFS) stands apart, rain 86% against a group average of 97%.
Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service52°35°99%
US model (GFS)54°39°86%
European model (ECMWF)53°33°98%
German model (ICON)54°36°100%
Canadian model (GEM)57°35°100%
The average54°36°97%

Saturday, November 14

High 47°   Low 30°   Rain 86%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 6°, rain spread 63 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 37% against a group average of 86%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service43°25°37%
US model (GFS)47°32°94%
European model (ECMWF)49°28°100%
German model (ICON)49°34°100%
Canadian model (GEM)49°31°100%
The average47°30°86%

Sunday, November 15

High 45°   Low 29°   Rain 6%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 5°, rain spread 19 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Sunday, November 15: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 19% against a group average of 6%.
Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service42°31°19%
US model (GFS)45°32°1%
European model (ECMWF)47°27°0%
German model (ICON)47°32°0%
Canadian model (GEM)46°24°10%
The average45°29°6%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.