Minority Report

Hamburg, AR — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Ashley County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 72°   Low 47°   Rain 0%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 3°, rain spread 0 points, 4 sources)

Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—38°0%
US model (GFS)74°48°0%
European model (ECMWF)72°51°0%
German model (ICON)70°49°0%
Canadian model (GEM)72°51°0%
The average72°47°0%

Friday, November 13

High 57°   Low 37°   Rain 0%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 0 points, 5 sources)

Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service59°33°0%
US model (GFS)58°37°0%
European model (ECMWF)56°40°0%
German model (ICON)55°38°0%
Canadian model (GEM)58°38°0%
The average57°37°0%

Saturday, November 14

High 56°   Low 33°   Rain 0%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 0 points, 5 sources)

Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service57°34°0%
US model (GFS)58°30°0%
European model (ECMWF)54°37°0%
German model (ICON)55°30°0%
Canadian model (GEM)54°33°0%
The average56°33°0%

Sunday, November 15

High 58°   Low 40°   Rain 40%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 6°, rain spread 28 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Sunday, November 15: the German model (ICON) stands apart, rain 56% against a group average of 40%.
Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service57°38°28%
US model (GFS)62°42°29%
European model (ECMWF)56°41°49%
German model (ICON)58°40°56%
Canadian model (GEM)57°38°40%
The average58°40°40%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.