Minority Report

Hardin, IL — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Calhoun County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 49°   Low 35°   Rain 6%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 2°, rain spread 19 points, 4 sources)

Minority report — Thursday, November 12: the Canadian model (GEM) stands apart, rain 19% against a group average of 6%.
Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—31°0%
US model (GFS)48°35°0%
European model (ECMWF)48°40°4%
German model (ICON)49°35°5%
Canadian model (GEM)50°32°19%
The average49°35°6%

Friday, November 13

High 44°   Low 30°   Rain 0%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 0 points, 5 sources)

Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service46°26°0%
US model (GFS)45°31°0%
European model (ECMWF)43°36°0%
German model (ICON)46°32°0%
Canadian model (GEM)42°27°0%
The average44°30°0%

Saturday, November 14

High 48°   Low 26°   Rain 0%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 0 points, 5 sources)

Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service49°27°0%
US model (GFS)49°24°0%
European model (ECMWF)47°30°0%
German model (ICON)49°27°0%
Canadian model (GEM)45°21°0%
The average48°26°0%

Sunday, November 15

High 52°   Low 26°   Rain 0%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 5°, rain spread 0 points, 5 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service51°28°0%
US model (GFS)54°33°0%
European model (ECMWF)51°28°0%
German model (ICON)54°26°0%
Canadian model (GEM)48°16°0%
The average52°26°0%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.