Minority Report

Harlan, IA — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Shelby County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 43°   Low 29°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 1°, rain spread 1 points, 4 sources)

Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—23°1%
US model (GFS)43°31°0%
European model (ECMWF)43°34°0%
German model (ICON)43°32°0%
Canadian model (GEM)43°25°0%
The average43°29°0%

Friday, November 13

High 41°   Low 25°   Rain 0%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 0 points, 5 sources)

Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service41°20°0%
US model (GFS)38°30°0%
European model (ECMWF)42°27°0%
German model (ICON)41°28°0%
Canadian model (GEM)41°19°0%
The average41°25°0%

Saturday, November 14

High 44°   Low 24°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 0 points, 5 sources)

Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service44°25°0%
US model (GFS)45°28°0%
European model (ECMWF)43°26°0%
German model (ICON)44°27°0%
Canadian model (GEM)43°15°0%
The average44°24°0%

Sunday, November 15

High 48°   Low 27°   Rain 0%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 1 points, 5 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service46°27°0%
US model (GFS)49°31°1%
European model (ECMWF)47°27°0%
German model (ICON)50°33°0%
Canadian model (GEM)46°17°0%
The average48°27°0%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.