Minority Report

Harrodsburg, KY — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Mercer County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 55°   Low 41°   Rain 67%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 1°, rain spread 73 points, 4 sources)

Minority report — Thursday, November 12: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 25% against a group average of 67%.
Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—37°25%
US model (GFS)55°42°36%
European model (ECMWF)55°43°98%
German model (ICON)55°43°85%
Canadian model (GEM)55°42°91%
The average55°41°67%

Friday, November 13

High 44°   Low 34°   Rain 64%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 2°, rain spread 54 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Friday, November 13: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 98% against a group average of 64%.
Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service44°29°62%
US model (GFS)44°33°44%
European model (ECMWF)45°36°98%
German model (ICON)45°37°58%
Canadian model (GEM)43°36°57%
The average44°34°64%

Saturday, November 14

High 46°   Low 29°   Rain 2%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 8 points, 5 sources)

Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service46°27°0%
US model (GFS)47°32°2%
European model (ECMWF)46°30°0%
German model (ICON)46°31°8%
Canadian model (GEM)45°26°1%
The average46°29°2%

Sunday, November 15

High 50°   Low 32°   Rain 0%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 5°, rain spread 2 points, 5 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service50°27°0%
US model (GFS)50°36°0%
European model (ECMWF)49°38°2%
German model (ICON)52°37°0%
Canadian model (GEM)47°21°0%
The average50°32°0%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.