Minority Report

Hart, MI — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Oceana County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 46°   Low 35°   Rain 42%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 2°, rain spread 38 points, 4 sources)

Minority report — Thursday, November 12: the US model (GFS) stands apart, rain 20% against a group average of 42%.
Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—30°38%
US model (GFS)46°34°20%
European model (ECMWF)46°37°53%
German model (ICON)46°37°58%
Canadian model (GEM)44°36°43%
The average46°35°42%

Friday, November 13

High 41°   Low 32°   Rain 18%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 4°, rain spread 41 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Friday, November 13: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 45% against a group average of 18%.
Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service43°33°45%
US model (GFS)40°31°19%
European model (ECMWF)42°30°4%
German model (ICON)42°34°5%
Canadian model (GEM)38°34°19%
The average41°32°18%

Saturday, November 14

High 45°   Low 35°   Rain 24%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 4°, rain spread 51 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 53% against a group average of 24%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service46°33°53%
US model (GFS)43°32°36%
European model (ECMWF)43°33°2%
German model (ICON)47°39°15%
Canadian model (GEM)44°37°14%
The average45°35°24%

Sunday, November 15

High 45°   Low 36°   Rain 10%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 3°, rain spread 20 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Sunday, November 15: the US model (GFS) stands apart, rain 20% against a group average of 10%.
Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service47°32°13%
US model (GFS)45°37°20%
European model (ECMWF)45°34°0%
German model (ICON)46°38°5%
Canadian model (GEM)44°36°11%
The average45°36°10%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.