Minority Report

Hawthorne, NV — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Mineral County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 67°   Low 38°   Rain 0%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 5°, rain spread 0 points, 4 sources)

Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—40°0%
US model (GFS)69°40°0%
European model (ECMWF)67°40°0%
German model (ICON)66°44°0%
Canadian model (GEM)65°27°0%
The average67°38°0%

Friday, November 13

High 63°   Low 38°   Rain 58%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 4°, rain spread 57 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Friday, November 13: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 92% against a group average of 58%.
Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service61°33°55%
US model (GFS)65°43°35%
European model (ECMWF)63°40°92%
German model (ICON)62°44°58%
Canadian model (GEM)62°30°52%
The average63°38°58%

Saturday, November 14

High 53°   Low 33°   Rain 23%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 2°, rain spread 77 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 77% against a group average of 23%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service53°36°0%
US model (GFS)53°37°1%
European model (ECMWF)53°36°77%
German model (ICON)53°34°15%
Canadian model (GEM)55°23°20%
The average53°33°23%

Sunday, November 15

High 61°   Low 37°   Rain 7%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 2°, rain spread 25 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Sunday, November 15: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 25% against a group average of 7%.
Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service59°37°25%
US model (GFS)60°46°3%
European model (ECMWF)61°39°0%
German model (ICON)61°41°6%
Canadian model (GEM)61°25°0%
The average61°37°7%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.