Minority Report

Hempstead, TX — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Waller County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 78°   Low 55°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 0 points, 4 sources)

Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—50°0%
US model (GFS)79°58°0%
European model (ECMWF)77°57°0%
German model (ICON)77°56°0%
Canadian model (GEM)79°55°0%
The average78°55°0%

Friday, November 13

High 75°   Low 51°   Rain 0%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 3°, rain spread 0 points, 5 sources)

Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service74°50°0%
US model (GFS)77°53°0%
European model (ECMWF)75°53°0%
German model (ICON)76°51°0%
Canadian model (GEM)75°49°0%
The average75°51°0%

Saturday, November 14

High 67°   Low 52°   Rain 25%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 7°, rain spread 53 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 53% against a group average of 25%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service66°53°34%
US model (GFS)69°51°10%
European model (ECMWF)67°53°53%
German model (ICON)62°50°27%
Canadian model (GEM)69°54°0%
The average67°52°25%

Sunday, November 15

High 67°   Low 53°   Rain 80%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 10°, rain spread 34 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Sunday, November 15: the US model (GFS) stands apart, rain 58% against a group average of 80%.
Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service65°52°78%
US model (GFS)73°54°58%
European model (ECMWF)65°53°92%
German model (ICON)63°53°80%
Canadian model (GEM)69°53°90%
The average67°53°80%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.