Minority Report

Hill City, KS — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Graham County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 57°   Low 33°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 3°, rain spread 0 points, 4 sources)

Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—29°0%
US model (GFS)56°32°0%
European model (ECMWF)56°35°0%
German model (ICON)56°33°0%
Canadian model (GEM)58°34°0%
The average57°33°0%

Friday, November 13

High 51°   Low 31°   Rain 0%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 0 points, 5 sources)

Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service51°30°0%
US model (GFS)49°31°0%
European model (ECMWF)52°34°0%
German model (ICON)51°29°0%
Canadian model (GEM)53°28°0%
The average51°31°0%

Saturday, November 14

High 48°   Low 32°   Rain 29%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 7°, rain spread 25 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the Canadian model (GEM) stands apart, rain 43% against a group average of 29%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service48°32°33%
US model (GFS)52°28°18%
European model (ECMWF)46°35°30%
German model (ICON)50°32°22%
Canadian model (GEM)46°34°43%
The average48°32°29%

Sunday, November 15

High 47°   Low 37°   Rain 43%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 9°, rain spread 43 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Sunday, November 15: the Canadian model (GEM) stands apart, rain 67% against a group average of 43%.
Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service47°31°24%
US model (GFS)42°40°33%
European model (ECMWF)51°39°53%
German model (ICON)46°40°38%
Canadian model (GEM)47°37°67%
The average47°37°43%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.