Minority Report

Hillsboro, IL — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Montgomery County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 48°   Low 34°   Rain 17%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 3°, rain spread 41 points, 4 sources)

Minority report — Thursday, November 12: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 49% against a group average of 17%.
Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—31°8%
US model (GFS)47°34°10%
European model (ECMWF)48°37°49%
German model (ICON)50°34°10%
Canadian model (GEM)48°34°10%
The average48°34°17%

Friday, November 13

High 44°   Low 29°   Rain 2%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 3°, rain spread 9 points, 5 sources)

Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service44°24°9%
US model (GFS)44°29°1%
European model (ECMWF)43°34°0%
German model (ICON)46°30°0%
Canadian model (GEM)43°28°0%
The average44°29°2%

Saturday, November 14

High 47°   Low 25°   Rain 0%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 3°, rain spread 0 points, 5 sources)

Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service47°25°0%
US model (GFS)47°22°0%
European model (ECMWF)47°30°0%
German model (ICON)49°26°0%
Canadian model (GEM)46°23°0%
The average47°25°0%

Sunday, November 15

High 51°   Low 27°   Rain 0%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 0 points, 5 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service50°27°0%
US model (GFS)53°33°0%
European model (ECMWF)50°29°0%
German model (ICON)53°29°0%
Canadian model (GEM)49°19°0%
The average51°27°0%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.