Minority Report

Hilo, HI — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Hawaii County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 79°   Low 72°   Rain 66%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 3°, rain spread 70 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Thursday, November 12: the German model (ICON) stands apart, rain 30% against a group average of 66%.
Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service81°69°65%
US model (GFS)79°69°81%
European model (ECMWF)79°75°100%
German model (ICON)78°72°30%
Canadian model (GEM)79°73°53%
The average79°72°66%

Friday, November 13

High 79°   Low 72°   Rain 70%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 3°, rain spread 43 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Friday, November 13: the US model (GFS) stands apart, rain 96% against a group average of 70%.
Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service80°68°63%
US model (GFS)78°71°96%
European model (ECMWF)77°74°78%
German model (ICON)80°72°60%
Canadian model (GEM)79°73°53%
The average79°72°70%

Saturday, November 14

High 79°   Low 71°   Rain 71%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 3°, rain spread 51 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the German model (ICON) stands apart, rain 43% against a group average of 71%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service81°69°56%
US model (GFS)80°71°94%
European model (ECMWF)78°72°84%
German model (ICON)80°72°43%
Canadian model (GEM)78°72°76%
The average79°71°71%

Sunday, November 15

High 78°   Low 71°   Rain 74%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 5°, rain spread 66 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Sunday, November 15: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 34% against a group average of 74%.
Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service80°68°34%
US model (GFS)75°68°100%
European model (ECMWF)78°72°96%
German model (ICON)79°72°51%
Canadian model (GEM)79°73°88%
The average78°71°74%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.