Minority Report

Hollister, CA — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of San Benito County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 77°   Low 50°   Rain 2%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 3°, rain spread 8 points, 4 sources)

Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—51°8%
US model (GFS)78°48°1%
European model (ECMWF)75°55°0%
German model (ICON)78°52°0%
Canadian model (GEM)77°46°0%
The average77°50°2%

Friday, November 13

High 64°   Low 50°   Rain 96%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 7°, rain spread 16 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Friday, November 13: the US model (GFS) stands apart, rain 84% against a group average of 96%.
Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service62°45°96%
US model (GFS)68°53°84%
European model (ECMWF)61°51°100%
German model (ICON)65°54°100%
Canadian model (GEM)62°49°100%
The average64°50°96%

Saturday, November 14

High 65°   Low 46°   Rain 15%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 2°, rain spread 20 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 4% against a group average of 15%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service65°43°4%
US model (GFS)64°50°22%
European model (ECMWF)66°47°18%
German model (ICON)64°48°5%
Canadian model (GEM)64°44°24%
The average65°46°15%

Sunday, November 15

High 66°   Low 48°   Rain 85%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 1°, rain spread 21 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Sunday, November 15: the German model (ICON) stands apart, rain 98% against a group average of 85%.
Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service65°47°83%
US model (GFS)66°51°80%
European model (ECMWF)66°49°77%
German model (ICON)66°49°98%
Canadian model (GEM)66°44°86%
The average66°48°85%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.