Minority Report

Honesdale, PA — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Wayne County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 48°   Low 37°   Rain 99%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 5°, rain spread 2 points, 4 sources)

Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—30°98%
US model (GFS)46°39°98%
European model (ECMWF)49°42°100%
German model (ICON)47°37°100%
Canadian model (GEM)50°36°100%
The average48°37°99%

Friday, November 13

High 39°   Low 31°   Rain 96%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 6°, rain spread 14 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Friday, November 13: the US model (GFS) stands apart, rain 86% against a group average of 96%.
Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service40°25°95%
US model (GFS)39°32°86%
European model (ECMWF)42°34°100%
German model (ICON)37°34°100%
Canadian model (GEM)36°32°100%
The average39°31°96%

Saturday, November 14

High 39°   Low 32°   Rain 22%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 20 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the US model (GFS) stands apart, rain 9% against a group average of 22%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service41°28°26%
US model (GFS)37°32°9%
European model (ECMWF)39°33°16%
German model (ICON)40°34°28%
Canadian model (GEM)40°32°29%
The average39°32°22%

Sunday, November 15

High 41°   Low 33°   Rain 17%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 21 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Sunday, November 15: the German model (ICON) stands apart, rain 5% against a group average of 17%.
Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service43°29°26%
US model (GFS)39°33°21%
European model (ECMWF)42°35°8%
German model (ICON)40°35°5%
Canadian model (GEM)41°34°25%
The average41°33°17%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.