Minority Report

Hope, AR — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Hempstead County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 72°   Low 47°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 1 points, 4 sources)

Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—39°1%
US model (GFS)73°45°1%
European model (ECMWF)71°51°0%
German model (ICON)72°48°0%
Canadian model (GEM)72°52°0%
The average72°47°0%

Friday, November 13

High 58°   Low 39°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 3°, rain spread 1 points, 5 sources)

Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service59°35°0%
US model (GFS)58°42°1%
European model (ECMWF)57°42°0%
German model (ICON)58°38°0%
Canadian model (GEM)59°39°0%
The average58°39°0%

Saturday, November 14

High 57°   Low 36°   Rain 2%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 8 points, 5 sources)

Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service56°37°8%
US model (GFS)59°34°1%
European model (ECMWF)55°37°2%
German model (ICON)57°34°0%
Canadian model (GEM)56°37°0%
The average57°36°2%

Sunday, November 15

High 52°   Low 41°   Rain 64%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 9°, rain spread 27 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Sunday, November 15: the US model (GFS) stands apart, rain 49% against a group average of 64%.
Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service52°38°60%
US model (GFS)56°42°49%
European model (ECMWF)51°42°69%
German model (ICON)47°40°67%
Canadian model (GEM)53°44°76%
The average52°41°64%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.