Minority Report

Hormigueros Municipio, PR — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Hormigueros Municipio.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 90°   Low 74°   Rain 37%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 2°, rain spread 91 points, 4 sources)

Minority report — Thursday, November 12: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 91% against a group average of 37%.
Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—77°0%
US model (GFS)90°76°84%
European model (ECMWF)91°73°91%
German model (ICON)90°70°10%
Canadian model (GEM)90°76°0%
The average90°74°37%

Friday, November 13

High 89°   Low 78°   Rain 5%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 10 points, 5 sources)

Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service89°77°10%
US model (GFS)89°80°3%
European model (ECMWF)90°76°8%
German model (ICON)90°77°0%
Canadian model (GEM)89°80°5%
The average89°78°5%

Saturday, November 14

High 89°   Low 79°   Rain 19%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 1°, rain spread 69 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 69% against a group average of 19%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service89°75°20%
US model (GFS)89°80°6%
European model (ECMWF)89°77°69%
German model (ICON)90°80°0%
Canadian model (GEM)89°80°0%
The average89°79°19%

Sunday, November 15

High 90°   Low 75°   Rain 15%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 4°, rain spread 38 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Sunday, November 15: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 41% against a group average of 15%.
Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service89°73°10%
US model (GFS)90°77°3%
European model (ECMWF)93°75°41%
German model (ICON)90°72°15%
Canadian model (GEM)90°76°5%
The average90°75°15%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.