Minority Report

Hot Springs, AR — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Garland County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 68°   Low 46°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 0 points, 4 sources)

Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—35°0%
US model (GFS)70°50°0%
European model (ECMWF)68°49°0%
German model (ICON)67°45°0%
Canadian model (GEM)68°49°0%
The average68°46°0%

Friday, November 13

High 56°   Low 36°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 0 points, 5 sources)

Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service57°32°0%
US model (GFS)55°38°0%
European model (ECMWF)55°39°0%
German model (ICON)55°33°0%
Canadian model (GEM)57°39°0%
The average56°36°0%

Saturday, November 14

High 53°   Low 34°   Rain 1%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 2 points, 5 sources)

Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service54°35°2%
US model (GFS)55°33°0%
European model (ECMWF)52°36°1%
German model (ICON)54°31°0%
Canadian model (GEM)52°35°0%
The average53°34°1%

Sunday, November 15

High 54°   Low 38°   Rain 41%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 5°, rain spread 17 points, 5 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service52°36°32%
US model (GFS)57°37°32%
European model (ECMWF)53°40°47%
German model (ICON)54°37°49%
Canadian model (GEM)53°42°44%
The average54°38°41%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.