Minority Report

Houghton, MI — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Houghton County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 37°   Low 32°   Rain 61%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 1°, rain spread 54 points, 4 sources)

Minority report — Thursday, November 12: the US model (GFS) stands apart, rain 29% against a group average of 61%.
Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—29°64%
US model (GFS)37°32°29%
European model (ECMWF)38°35°55%
German model (ICON)38°34°83%
Canadian model (GEM)37°33°72%
The average37°32°61%

Friday, November 13

High 37°   Low 33°   Rain 31%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 3°, rain spread 31 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Friday, November 13: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 14% against a group average of 31%.
Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service35°33°40%
US model (GFS)35°30°25%
European model (ECMWF)38°34°14%
German model (ICON)38°34°45%
Canadian model (GEM)37°32°29%
The average37°33°31%

Saturday, November 14

High 39°   Low 31°   Rain 3%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 3°, rain spread 8 points, 5 sources)

Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service38°26°0%
US model (GFS)38°33°6%
European model (ECMWF)40°33°0%
German model (ICON)40°35°8%
Canadian model (GEM)38°29°2%
The average39°31°3%

Sunday, November 15

High 44°   Low 31°   Rain 0%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 0 points, 5 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service42°27°0%
US model (GFS)44°33°0%
European model (ECMWF)46°32°0%
German model (ICON)46°35°0%
Canadian model (GEM)43°28°0%
The average44°31°0%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.