Minority Report

Hugoton, KS — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Stevens County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 70°   Low 38°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 0 points, 4 sources)

Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—36°0%
US model (GFS)72°37°0%
European model (ECMWF)70°40°0%
German model (ICON)70°40°0%
Canadian model (GEM)70°38°0%
The average70°38°0%

Friday, November 13

High 58°   Low 37°   Rain 2%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 8 points, 5 sources)

Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service58°36°8%
US model (GFS)60°38°0%
European model (ECMWF)58°38°0%
German model (ICON)56°39°0%
Canadian model (GEM)59°34°0%
The average58°37°2%

Saturday, November 14

High 48°   Low 38°   Rain 91%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 5°, rain spread 20 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the German model (ICON) stands apart, rain 80% against a group average of 91%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service50°36°94%
US model (GFS)50°34°92%
European model (ECMWF)46°41°100%
German model (ICON)48°40°80%
Canadian model (GEM)45°40°87%
The average48°38°91%

Sunday, November 15

High 45°   Low 38°   Rain 74%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 4°, rain spread 84 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Sunday, November 15: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 15% against a group average of 74%.
Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service47°34°15%
US model (GFS)46°41°92%
European model (ECMWF)44°39°99%
German model (ICON)43°41°76%
Canadian model (GEM)43°37°86%
The average45°38°74%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.