Minority Report

Independence, KS — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Montgomery County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 59°   Low 36°   Rain 0%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 0 points, 4 sources)

Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—32°0%
US model (GFS)57°38°0%
European model (ECMWF)59°40°0%
German model (ICON)60°35°0%
Canadian model (GEM)60°37°0%
The average59°36°0%

Friday, November 13

High 49°   Low 29°   Rain 0%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 0 points, 5 sources)

Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service49°28°0%
US model (GFS)46°32°0%
European model (ECMWF)49°34°0%
German model (ICON)50°25°0%
Canadian model (GEM)50°28°0%
The average49°29°0%

Saturday, November 14

High 53°   Low 30°   Rain 3%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 8 points, 5 sources)

Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service52°37°8%
US model (GFS)54°31°1%
European model (ECMWF)51°32°0%
German model (ICON)55°26°3%
Canadian model (GEM)54°24°2%
The average53°30°3%

Sunday, November 15

High 49°   Low 38°   Rain 29%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 5°, rain spread 47 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Sunday, November 15: the Canadian model (GEM) stands apart, rain 62% against a group average of 29%.
Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service49°35°25%
US model (GFS)50°42°22%
European model (ECMWF)52°37°20%
German model (ICON)50°38°15%
Canadian model (GEM)46°40°62%
The average49°38°29%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.