Minority Report

Ionia, MI — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Ionia County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 45°   Low 35°   Rain 79%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 2°, rain spread 85 points, 4 sources)

Minority report — Thursday, November 12: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 15% against a group average of 79%.
Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—29°15%
US model (GFS)45°37°88%
European model (ECMWF)46°37°100%
German model (ICON)44°36°93%
Canadian model (GEM)44°36°100%
The average45°35°79%

Friday, November 13

High 40°   Low 30°   Rain 16%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 2°, rain spread 25 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Friday, November 13: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 35% against a group average of 16%.
Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service41°28°10%
US model (GFS)39°32°12%
European model (ECMWF)42°29°35%
German model (ICON)41°31°15%
Canadian model (GEM)40°32°10%
The average40°30°16%

Saturday, November 14

High 44°   Low 32°   Rain 1%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 5°, rain spread 3 points, 5 sources)

Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service44°32°2%
US model (GFS)42°32°3%
European model (ECMWF)44°30°2%
German model (ICON)47°32°0%
Canadian model (GEM)44°34°0%
The average44°32°1%

Sunday, November 15

High 45°   Low 33°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 3°, rain spread 2 points, 5 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service45°29°0%
US model (GFS)46°36°0%
European model (ECMWF)44°35°2%
German model (ICON)46°37°0%
Canadian model (GEM)44°30°0%
The average45°33°0%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.