Minority Report

Irvine, KY — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Estill County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 55°   Low 42°   Rain 86%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 2°, rain spread 66 points, 4 sources)

Minority report — Thursday, November 12: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 34% against a group average of 86%.
Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—39°34%
US model (GFS)54°43°94%
European model (ECMWF)55°44°100%
German model (ICON)56°45°100%
Canadian model (GEM)54°42°100%
The average55°42°86%

Friday, November 13

High 45°   Low 35°   Rain 68%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 2°, rain spread 55 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Friday, November 13: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 96% against a group average of 68%.
Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service44°30°67%
US model (GFS)44°33°41%
European model (ECMWF)46°36°96%
German model (ICON)46°39°63%
Canadian model (GEM)44°38°74%
The average45°35°68%

Saturday, November 14

High 46°   Low 31°   Rain 8%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 2°, rain spread 17 points, 5 sources)

Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service45°31°1%
US model (GFS)47°32°2%
European model (ECMWF)47°31°3%
German model (ICON)46°33°18%
Canadian model (GEM)45°28°17%
The average46°31°8%

Sunday, November 15

High 49°   Low 33°   Rain 0%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 6°, rain spread 2 points, 5 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service48°29°0%
US model (GFS)48°38°0%
European model (ECMWF)48°37°2%
German model (ICON)53°36°0%
Canadian model (GEM)47°23°0%
The average49°33°0%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.