Minority Report

Ithaca, NY — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Tompkins County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 47°   Low 35°   Rain 99%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 3 points, 4 sources)

Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—30°97%
US model (GFS)47°36°100%
European model (ECMWF)47°37°100%
German model (ICON)48°35°100%
Canadian model (GEM)46°36°100%
The average47°35°99%

Friday, November 13

High 40°   Low 33°   Rain 92%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 3°, rain spread 34 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Friday, November 13: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 66% against a group average of 92%.
Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service42°29°66%
US model (GFS)39°34°95%
European model (ECMWF)39°35°100%
German model (ICON)39°34°98%
Canadian model (GEM)39°34°100%
The average40°33°92%

Saturday, November 14

High 41°   Low 35°   Rain 90%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 22 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the US model (GFS) stands apart, rain 78% against a group average of 90%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service43°32°80%
US model (GFS)39°35°78%
European model (ECMWF)40°37°100%
German model (ICON)41°35°93%
Canadian model (GEM)40°36°100%
The average41°35°90%

Sunday, November 15

High 42°   Low 36°   Rain 80%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 5°, rain spread 27 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Sunday, November 15: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 96% against a group average of 80%.
Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service45°33°70%
US model (GFS)40°35°78%
European model (ECMWF)42°38°96%
German model (ICON)42°38°69%
Canadian model (GEM)40°36°87%
The average42°36°80%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.