Minority Report

Jackson, CA — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Amador County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 77°   Low 51°   Rain 6%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 17 points, 4 sources)

Minority report — Thursday, November 12: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 17% against a group average of 6%.
Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—52°17%
US model (GFS)79°53°2%
European model (ECMWF)75°50°0%
German model (ICON)76°48°10%
Canadian model (GEM)77°51°0%
The average77°51°6%

Friday, November 13

High 60°   Low 47°   Rain 100%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 6°, rain spread 0 points, 5 sources)

Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service60°42°100%
US model (GFS)57°49°100%
European model (ECMWF)62°47°100%
German model (ICON)63°50°100%
Canadian model (GEM)59°49°100%
The average60°47°100%

Saturday, November 14

High 60°   Low 44°   Rain 23%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 2°, rain spread 34 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 4% against a group average of 23%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service61°43°4%
US model (GFS)59°47°14%
European model (ECMWF)60°42°23%
German model (ICON)60°43°38%
Canadian model (GEM)59°44°36%
The average60°44°23%

Sunday, November 15

High 62°   Low 45°   Rain 88%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 3°, rain spread 16 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Sunday, November 15: the German model (ICON) stands apart, rain 100% against a group average of 88%.
Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service62°46°84%
US model (GFS)63°47°86%
European model (ECMWF)62°46°85%
German model (ICON)60°44°100%
Canadian model (GEM)62°43°85%
The average62°45°88%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.