Minority Report

Jacksonville, IL — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Morgan County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 46°   Low 33°   Rain 8%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 2°, rain spread 17 points, 4 sources)

Minority report — Thursday, November 12: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 18% against a group average of 8%.
Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—30°3%
US model (GFS)47°34°1%
European model (ECMWF)47°38°18%
German model (ICON)47°34°8%
Canadian model (GEM)45°31°10%
The average46°33°8%

Friday, November 13

High 43°   Low 29°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 3°, rain spread 2 points, 5 sources)

Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service44°24°2%
US model (GFS)44°29°0%
European model (ECMWF)42°34°0%
German model (ICON)44°29°0%
Canadian model (GEM)41°28°0%
The average43°29°0%

Saturday, November 14

High 46°   Low 25°   Rain 0%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 3°, rain spread 0 points, 5 sources)

Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service47°25°0%
US model (GFS)47°24°0%
European model (ECMWF)46°29°0%
German model (ICON)48°26°0%
Canadian model (GEM)44°22°0%
The average46°25°0%

Sunday, November 15

High 50°   Low 26°   Rain 0%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 0 points, 5 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service49°27°0%
US model (GFS)52°33°0%
European model (ECMWF)49°29°0%
German model (ICON)52°27°0%
Canadian model (GEM)48°17°0%
The average50°26°0%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.