Minority Report

Jay, OK — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Delaware County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 61°   Low 38°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 3°, rain spread 0 points, 4 sources)

Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—30°0%
US model (GFS)62°40°0%
European model (ECMWF)59°40°0%
German model (ICON)61°37°0%
Canadian model (GEM)60°42°0%
The average61°38°0%

Friday, November 13

High 49°   Low 31°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 0 points, 5 sources)

Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service50°28°0%
US model (GFS)49°31°0%
European model (ECMWF)48°35°0%
German model (ICON)50°28°0%
Canadian model (GEM)50°32°0%
The average49°31°0%

Saturday, November 14

High 54°   Low 30°   Rain 2%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 5°, rain spread 6 points, 5 sources)

Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service53°35°6%
US model (GFS)55°25°1%
European model (ECMWF)52°32°0%
German model (ICON)57°27°0%
Canadian model (GEM)54°31°2%
The average54°30°2%

Sunday, November 15

High 50°   Low 38°   Rain 36%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 13°, rain spread 42 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Sunday, November 15: the Canadian model (GEM) stands apart, rain 67% against a group average of 36%.
Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service50°34°26%
US model (GFS)57°41°32%
European model (ECMWF)51°37°25%
German model (ICON)50°38°28%
Canadian model (GEM)44°39°67%
The average50°38°36%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.