Minority Report

Jefferson City, MO — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Cole County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 50°   Low 35°   Rain 3%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 14 points, 4 sources)

Minority report — Thursday, November 12: the Canadian model (GEM) stands apart, rain 14% against a group average of 3%.
Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—31°0%
US model (GFS)50°34°0%
European model (ECMWF)50°40°0%
German model (ICON)50°35°0%
Canadian model (GEM)52°34°14%
The average50°35°3%

Friday, November 13

High 45°   Low 28°   Rain 0%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 0 points, 5 sources)

Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service47°24°0%
US model (GFS)43°29°0%
European model (ECMWF)44°32°0%
German model (ICON)45°27°0%
Canadian model (GEM)44°26°0%
The average45°28°0%

Saturday, November 14

High 48°   Low 25°   Rain 0%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 0 points, 5 sources)

Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service49°26°0%
US model (GFS)50°27°0%
European model (ECMWF)46°29°0%
German model (ICON)49°23°0%
Canadian model (GEM)46°19°0%
The average48°25°0%

Sunday, November 15

High 52°   Low 27°   Rain 1%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 7°, rain spread 2 points, 5 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service51°27°2%
US model (GFS)55°31°1%
European model (ECMWF)52°29°0%
German model (ICON)55°29°0%
Canadian model (GEM)49°21°0%
The average52°27°1%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.