Minority Report

Jefferson, WI — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Jefferson County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 42°   Low 32°   Rain 9%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 2°, rain spread 28 points, 4 sources)

Minority report — Thursday, November 12: the Canadian model (GEM) stands apart, rain 29% against a group average of 9%.
Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—27°3%
US model (GFS)43°32°1%
European model (ECMWF)41°34°8%
German model (ICON)42°34°3%
Canadian model (GEM)42°34°29%
The average42°32°9%

Friday, November 13

High 41°   Low 28°   Rain 1%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 3°, rain spread 4 points, 5 sources)

Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service42°24°4%
US model (GFS)41°29°2%
European model (ECMWF)39°30°0%
German model (ICON)42°29°0%
Canadian model (GEM)40°28°0%
The average41°28°1%

Saturday, November 14

High 44°   Low 27°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 3°, rain spread 1 points, 5 sources)

Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service45°25°0%
US model (GFS)44°29°1%
European model (ECMWF)43°28°0%
German model (ICON)45°29°0%
Canadian model (GEM)42°24°0%
The average44°27°0%

Sunday, November 15

High 46°   Low 26°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 3°, rain spread 0 points, 5 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service47°26°0%
US model (GFS)46°29°0%
European model (ECMWF)45°27°0%
German model (ICON)46°30°0%
Canadian model (GEM)44°18°0%
The average46°26°0%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.