Minority Report

Jerome, ID — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Jerome County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 63°   Low 40°   Rain 0%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 6°, rain spread 1 points, 4 sources)

Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—40°1%
US model (GFS)66°40°0%
European model (ECMWF)65°41°0%
German model (ICON)63°40°0%
Canadian model (GEM)59°38°0%
The average63°40°0%

Friday, November 13

High 65°   Low 41°   Rain 43%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 4°, rain spread 82 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Friday, November 13: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 87% against a group average of 43%.
Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service65°43°87%
US model (GFS)64°42°15%
European model (ECMWF)66°42°43%
German model (ICON)66°40°63%
Canadian model (GEM)62°38°5%
The average65°41°43%

Saturday, November 14

High 52°   Low 36°   Rain 68%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 2°, rain spread 83 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 17% against a group average of 68%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service52°34°17%
US model (GFS)54°40°66%
European model (ECMWF)51°38°100%
German model (ICON)52°36°88%
Canadian model (GEM)52°32°67%
The average52°36°68%

Sunday, November 15

High 57°   Low 34°   Rain 1%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 3°, rain spread 7 points, 5 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service56°36°7%
US model (GFS)56°37°0%
European model (ECMWF)59°36°0%
German model (ICON)58°33°0%
Canadian model (GEM)57°30°0%
The average57°34°1%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.