Minority Report

Jersey City, NJ — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Hudson County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 60°   Low 48°   Rain 96%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 2°, rain spread 16 points, 4 sources)

Minority report — Thursday, November 12: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 84% against a group average of 96%.
Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—45°84%
US model (GFS)61°49°94%
European model (ECMWF)59°50°100%
German model (ICON)59°49°100%
Canadian model (GEM)61°49°100%
The average60°48°96%

Friday, November 13

High 49°   Low 37°   Rain 97%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 5°, rain spread 9 points, 5 sources)

Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service46°38°94%
US model (GFS)49°37°91%
European model (ECMWF)50°35°98%
German model (ICON)49°38°100%
Canadian model (GEM)51°36°100%
The average49°37°97%

Saturday, November 14

High 46°   Low 36°   Rain 19%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 4°, rain spread 45 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the German model (ICON) stands apart, rain 45% against a group average of 19%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service48°38°0%
US model (GFS)44°34°5%
European model (ECMWF)45°35°5%
German model (ICON)47°38°45%
Canadian model (GEM)44°35°41%
The average46°36°19%

Sunday, November 15

High 48°   Low 38°   Rain 0%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 5°, rain spread 2 points, 5 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service51°39°0%
US model (GFS)46°40°0%
European model (ECMWF)47°38°2%
German model (ICON)49°40°0%
Canadian model (GEM)46°34°0%
The average48°38°0%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.