Minority Report

Jim Thorpe, PA — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Carbon County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 52°   Low 41°   Rain 99%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 3°, rain spread 7 points, 4 sources)

Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—33°93%
US model (GFS)52°44°100%
European model (ECMWF)50°45°100%
German model (ICON)52°43°100%
Canadian model (GEM)53°41°100%
The average52°41°99%

Friday, November 13

High 43°   Low 33°   Rain 95%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 14 points, 5 sources)

Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service44°29°93%
US model (GFS)44°32°86%
European model (ECMWF)45°35°100%
German model (ICON)43°36°98%
Canadian model (GEM)41°34°100%
The average43°33°95%

Saturday, November 14

High 42°   Low 33°   Rain 14%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 6°, rain spread 22 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 1% against a group average of 14%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service46°31°1%
US model (GFS)40°32°7%
European model (ECMWF)40°33°15%
German model (ICON)43°35°23%
Canadian model (GEM)41°34°22%
The average42°33°14%

Sunday, November 15

High 44°   Low 35°   Rain 5%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 6°, rain spread 13 points, 5 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service48°30°1%
US model (GFS)42°33°9%
European model (ECMWF)42°36°13%
German model (ICON)45°38°0%
Canadian model (GEM)43°35°0%
The average44°35°5%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.