Minority Report

Jonesville, VA — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Lee County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 52°   Low 40°   Rain 81%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 2°, rain spread 62 points, 4 sources)

Minority report — Thursday, November 12: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 38% against a group average of 81%.
Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—33°38%
US model (GFS)52°41°71%
European model (ECMWF)53°42°100%
German model (ICON)53°43°100%
Canadian model (GEM)51°42°98%
The average52°40°81%

Friday, November 13

High 43°   Low 34°   Rain 56%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 3°, rain spread 65 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Friday, November 13: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 100% against a group average of 56%.
Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service45°28°52%
US model (GFS)42°34°43%
European model (ECMWF)43°37°100%
German model (ICON)43°37°35%
Canadian model (GEM)42°33°52%
The average43°34°56%

Saturday, November 14

High 42°   Low 29°   Rain 7%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 3°, rain spread 13 points, 5 sources)

Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service44°25°1%
US model (GFS)42°30°5%
European model (ECMWF)42°31°12%
German model (ICON)41°33°5%
Canadian model (GEM)42°24°14%
The average42°29°7%

Sunday, November 15

High 48°   Low 27°   Rain 0%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 0 points, 5 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service50°25°0%
US model (GFS)46°29°0%
European model (ECMWF)48°29°0%
German model (ICON)50°32°0%
Canadian model (GEM)50°22°0%
The average48°27°0%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.