Minority Report

Kalkaska, MI — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Kalkaska County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 42°   Low 32°   Rain 67%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 2°, rain spread 76 points, 4 sources)

Minority report — Thursday, November 12: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 24% against a group average of 67%.
Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—31°24%
US model (GFS)43°32°53%
European model (ECMWF)42°33°90%
German model (ICON)41°31°70%
Canadian model (GEM)41°32°100%
The average42°32°67%

Friday, November 13

High 39°   Low 30°   Rain 18%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 2°, rain spread 51 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Friday, November 13: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 51% against a group average of 18%.
Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service39°31°51%
US model (GFS)38°32°22%
European model (ECMWF)40°29°6%
German model (ICON)38°29°10%
Canadian model (GEM)40°30°0%
The average39°30°18%

Saturday, November 14

High 41°   Low 33°   Rain 15%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 3°, rain spread 33 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 33% against a group average of 15%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service41°32°20%
US model (GFS)42°32°9%
European model (ECMWF)39°34°33%
German model (ICON)42°33°13%
Canadian model (GEM)40°32°0%
The average41°33°15%

Sunday, November 15

High 43°   Low 32°   Rain 8%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 10 points, 5 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service42°29°7%
US model (GFS)44°35°5%
European model (ECMWF)43°32°15%
German model (ICON)43°32°8%
Canadian model (GEM)41°33°5%
The average43°32°8%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.