Minority Report

Kenansville, NC — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Duplin County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 73°   Low 49°   Rain 17%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 2°, rain spread 51 points, 4 sources)

Minority report — Thursday, November 12: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 51% against a group average of 17%.
Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—42°0%
US model (GFS)74°51°28%
European model (ECMWF)72°52°51%
German model (ICON)73°49°8%
Canadian model (GEM)73°51°0%
The average73°49°17%

Friday, November 13

High 59°   Low 42°   Rain 9%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 3°, rain spread 20 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Friday, November 13: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 20% against a group average of 9%.
Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service61°36°20%
US model (GFS)58°44°5%
European model (ECMWF)58°45°16%
German model (ICON)60°41°5%
Canadian model (GEM)59°44°0%
The average59°42°9%

Saturday, November 14

High 54°   Low 36°   Rain 6%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 3°, rain spread 24 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 24% against a group average of 6%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service56°31°1%
US model (GFS)54°36°5%
European model (ECMWF)53°38°24%
German model (ICON)54°35°0%
Canadian model (GEM)54°37°0%
The average54°36°6%

Sunday, November 15

High 56°   Low 32°   Rain 0%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 3°, rain spread 0 points, 5 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service57°32°0%
US model (GFS)55°35°0%
European model (ECMWF)55°36°0%
German model (ICON)58°30°0%
Canadian model (GEM)54°28°0%
The average56°32°0%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.