Minority Report

Keosauqua, IA — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Van Buren County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 47°   Low 34°   Rain 4%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 2°, rain spread 19 points, 4 sources)

Minority report — Thursday, November 12: the Canadian model (GEM) stands apart, rain 19% against a group average of 4%.
Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—31°0%
US model (GFS)47°33°0%
European model (ECMWF)47°37°0%
German model (ICON)48°34°0%
Canadian model (GEM)46°36°19%
The average47°34°4%

Friday, November 13

High 42°   Low 27°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 3°, rain spread 0 points, 5 sources)

Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service44°23°0%
US model (GFS)42°27°0%
European model (ECMWF)42°31°0%
German model (ICON)43°30°0%
Canadian model (GEM)41°26°0%
The average42°27°0%

Saturday, November 14

High 46°   Low 25°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 3°, rain spread 0 points, 5 sources)

Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service47°25°0%
US model (GFS)47°25°0%
European model (ECMWF)45°27°0%
German model (ICON)48°26°0%
Canadian model (GEM)45°20°0%
The average46°25°0%

Sunday, November 15

High 50°   Low 26°   Rain 0%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 0 points, 5 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service50°26°0%
US model (GFS)51°32°0%
European model (ECMWF)49°29°0%
German model (ICON)52°28°0%
Canadian model (GEM)48°14°0%
The average50°26°0%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.