Minority Report

Ketchikan, AK — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Ketchikan Gateway Borough.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 48°   Low 42°   Rain 87%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 5°, rain spread 63 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Thursday, November 12: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 37% against a group average of 87%.
Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service50°43°37%
US model (GFS)45°36°100%
European model (ECMWF)47°42°100%
German model (ICON)50°44°100%
Canadian model (GEM)47°45°100%
The average48°42°87%

Friday, November 13

High 49°   Low 45°   Rain 87%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 5°, rain spread 34 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Friday, November 13: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 66% against a group average of 87%.
Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service51°47°66%
US model (GFS)46°39°93%
European model (ECMWF)50°45°100%
German model (ICON)51°48°85%
Canadian model (GEM)49°46°92%
The average49°45°87%

Saturday, November 14

High 51°   Low 46°   Rain 92%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 5°, rain spread 16 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the US model (GFS) stands apart, rain 82% against a group average of 92%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service52°44°92%
US model (GFS)48°43°82%
European model (ECMWF)53°48°98%
German model (ICON)53°48°95%
Canadian model (GEM)51°48°95%
The average51°46°92%

Sunday, November 15

High 51°   Low 44°   Rain 97%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 5°, rain spread 15 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Sunday, November 15: the US model (GFS) stands apart, rain 85% against a group average of 97%.
Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service52°45°100%
US model (GFS)48°40°85%
European model (ECMWF)53°45°100%
German model (ICON)53°44°100%
Canadian model (GEM)50°44°100%
The average51°44°97%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.