Minority Report

Kinston, NC — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Lenoir County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 73°   Low 49°   Rain 19%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 2°, rain spread 26 points, 4 sources)

Minority report — Thursday, November 12: the German model (ICON) stands apart, rain 5% against a group average of 19%.
Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—43°15%
US model (GFS)74°50°29%
European model (ECMWF)72°52°31%
German model (ICON)73°50°5%
Canadian model (GEM)73°51°14%
The average73°49°19%

Friday, November 13

High 60°   Low 43°   Rain 17%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 3°, rain spread 26 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Friday, November 13: the Canadian model (GEM) stands apart, rain 2% against a group average of 17%.
Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service61°36°23%
US model (GFS)58°45°8%
European model (ECMWF)58°46°28%
German model (ICON)61°42°23%
Canadian model (GEM)62°45°2%
The average60°43°17%

Saturday, November 14

High 54°   Low 36°   Rain 9%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 3°, rain spread 29 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 29% against a group average of 9%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service56°32°0%
US model (GFS)54°37°4%
European model (ECMWF)53°38°29%
German model (ICON)54°34°5%
Canadian model (GEM)54°38°5%
The average54°36°9%

Sunday, November 15

High 56°   Low 32°   Rain 0%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 0 points, 5 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service57°33°0%
US model (GFS)55°35°0%
European model (ECMWF)56°36°0%
German model (ICON)58°28°0%
Canadian model (GEM)55°29°0%
The average56°32°0%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.