Minority Report

Kiowa, CO — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Elbert County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 62°   Low 37°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 0 points, 4 sources)

Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—38°0%
US model (GFS)62°34°0%
European model (ECMWF)63°41°0%
German model (ICON)61°37°0%
Canadian model (GEM)63°35°0%
The average62°37°0%

Friday, November 13

High 64°   Low 39°   Rain 1%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 3°, rain spread 4 points, 5 sources)

Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service64°34°4%
US model (GFS)65°39°0%
European model (ECMWF)62°42°0%
German model (ICON)64°39°0%
Canadian model (GEM)64°39°0%
The average64°39°1%

Saturday, November 14

High 52°   Low 35°   Rain 40%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 6°, rain spread 39 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 68% against a group average of 40%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service52°32°29%
US model (GFS)51°33°39%
European model (ECMWF)49°37°68%
German model (ICON)55°36°33%
Canadian model (GEM)54°36°33%
The average52°35°40%

Sunday, November 15

High 52°   Low 34°   Rain 17%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 27 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Sunday, November 15: the German model (ICON) stands apart, rain 31% against a group average of 17%.
Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service50°31°4%
US model (GFS)52°36°8%
European model (ECMWF)53°34°19%
German model (ICON)54°34°31%
Canadian model (GEM)52°32°21%
The average52°34°17%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.